About The Overfit

Welcome to The Overfit, where I examine the assumptions behind popular business and technology frameworks—and provide evidence-based alternatives when those assumptions don’t hold up to scrutiny.

The name “The Overfit” comes from machine learning, where models can become so tailored to their training data that they fail on new situations. I’ve observed a similar phenomenon in business thinking: frameworks that sound sophisticated but break down when applied to complex, real-world problems. This blog explores those breakdowns and offers more robust approaches.

What You’ll Find Here

I write for senior technical and business professionals who are frustrated with shallow analysis and need frameworks they can trust for consequential decisions. Topics include:

• Technology Strategy: Cutting through AI and automation hype to focus on practical implementation
• Organizational Behavior: How leadership, culture, and decision-making actually work in complex organizations
• System Design: Building processes, policies, and structures that function reliably under pressure
• Critical Analysis: Examining popular business concepts with the intellectual rigor they often lack

About the Author

I’m Jan Philip Göpfert, based in Bielefeld, Germany. My background spans artificial intelligence research, startup operations, and strategic consulting. I’m particularly interested in the gap between how systems are designed to work and how they actually behave—whether those systems are technological, organizational, or social.

I write because too much business content treats complex problems as if simple solutions exist. Real-world challenges require more sophisticated thinking, and that’s what I aim to provide.

Connect

For direct correspondence: janphilip@gopfert.eu

You can also find me on LinkedIn or visit my personal website at janphilip.gopfert.eu.